My Fearless Budget Predictions

It’s with great anticipation that we look forward to the coming Federal Budget.

The excitement is building as the government throws out all manner of red herrings. But as we learned last year, what’s announced on budget night may never make legislation.

So what are my fearless predictions……

• The Superannuation rules will not be affected this year – last years wholesale tinkering is only just coming into play;
• Housing is a big discussion point – I doubt negative gearing will be touched as they appear to have promised that they won’t;
• The CGT discount is, in my mind, likely to get hit. It currently stands at 50% discount for capital assets held over 12 months. This is widely referred to in the press, as creating an uneven playing field with regard to other forms of investment. I expect the government may reduce this figure, perhaps to 40% – a small decrease which won’t upset their voter base, but will deliver some budget savings and arguably assist housing affordability.

If this comes to pass, I don’t expect there to be grandfathering i.e. just because you owned the property before the changes were implemented, it doesn’t guarantee the 50% discount.

Will this likely influence a decision to sell prior to the budget? I don’t expect so.

-Ian Hogbin

Posted 21.04.17

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